Who will win the Big Ten?

The 2026 season is finally here, and it is shaping up to be another dramatic one for the Big Ten. A big Ten team has won the National Championship for the last three years and hopes are high for a fourth. So, who will win the Big Ten and who will be disappointed (again)?

A Familiar Battle at the Top

The Big Ten had three teams with ten wins or more in 2025; Playoff participants Oregon (13-2), Ohio St (12-2) and National Champions Indiana at 16-0. It is likely that these three teams will again form the top 3 with 10+ wins.

I have Oregon topping the pile this year. I believe that the core group of returning starters will be the difference in the conference. They will have learned from humbling experiences in previous playoffs and have a QB in Dante Moore that will have developed over this offseason. I see them dropping the Ohio State regular season game  but winning a rematch in a tough Big Ten Championship game.

Ohio State will not be far behind as they are returning Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith and Bo Jackson, players who would walk into most teams. A tough schedule is why I see two losses, but an appearance in the Big Ten Championship game and a decent playoff run.

Embed from Getty Images

It will be a tough challenge for Indiana to follow up their 2025 winning season. There are tough shoes to fill for Josh Hoover who replaces Fernando Mendoza at QB. But Curt Cignetti is a quality coach and will have this Hoosier team firing on all cylinders very quickly. It will be a season where Cignetti demonstrates last year was not just about the players, but the system.  I do not expect another 16-0 but think 10-2 with a playoff run is on the cards.

The Foot of the Football Conference

In any conference or league, some teams will be top and someone has to be at the bottom. In the Big Ten for now that is Northwestern, Rutgers, Purdue, Maryland and Michigan State. They simply do not have the resources in the footballing programme to compete.

That does not mean they are not important to the Big Ten (either academically, historically or in other sports), but in football teams they are unlikely to be in the bowl conversation this year. I have each at 4 wins or less this year.

A Middle Playing Spoiler

The Big Ten used to be criticised for not being very deep but I would say that it is getting deeper each year. Its middle group are a prime example of that, and I have this bunch somewhere between 6 and 9 wins.

For me, this group includes Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA and this year I would put Illinois, Iowa and Michigan. Within the group there are two outliers in Iowa and Michigan. I am predicting both to get 9 wins, but I see that as a ceiling.

For Iowa, 9 wins will be about solid defence and an efficient offense. Michigan are in a new rebuild with Kyle Whittingham and whilst their ambitions will be loftier, I think establishing a solid culture and 9 wins is a good result this year.

Embed from Getty Images

For the rest of this middle group I see 6-8 wins and their key role being to play spoiler in Big Ten matches, giving the top of the table a tough time and the occasional scare.

Those Knocking on the Door

That leaves a group of 3 teams who I see as knocking on the door. By that I mean the pressure is firmly on inside their organisations to break into the top tier.

USC are the prime example, they have not yet made the CFP and are in year 5 under Lincoln Riley. They have invested heavily in the team, probably have the best team they have had for a few years, and would see this season as the time to make that step up. A tricky middle section of the schedule where they play Oregon, Washington, Penn St and then Ohio St and Indiana a few weeks later will test them.

Washington have perhaps not yet made the splash in the Big Ten that they would want to (and perhaps Oregon have). They will be eager to correct this and finally achieve a playoff spot. With USC, Penn St, Indiana and Oregon on the schedule (the latter two back-to-back), they have opportunities for statement wins. I do suspect this will be beyond the team they have however.

For Penn State, we saw what the ambitions of the programme meant for James Franklin’s reign last year. A team that has a history of losing close games will need to find a way to overcome USC, Michigan and Washington to emulate the 2024 run to the CFP semis. Whether new coach Matt Campbell can achieve this in year one or needs a season to shape the squad remains to be seen.

Embed from Getty Images

For all three teams I see nine wins not being enough and another season of disappointment for fans and Athletic Directors, although it is not outside the realms of possibility that one sneaks into the playoff.

The Big Ten Continues to Improve

The new era of College Sports has been very beneficial to the Big Ten and this is set to continue. Indiana and Ohio State have won the National Title in the last two years and Oregon and Penn State have made the finals.

The Big Ten also went 11-5 in Bowl games last year demonstrating the depth. I am personally not interested in one conference v another comparisons. But it comforts me to know that the conference I spend most of my time watching (Big Ten) is improving year by year. Long may that continue!

Playoff Contenders	2025 Record	Projected Record 2026
Oregon	13-2 (CFP)	11-1
Ohio State	12-2 (CFP)	10-2
Indiana	16-0 (Nat Champ)	10-2
Knocking on the Door
USC	9-4 (Bowl)	9-3
Washington	9-4 (Bowl)	9-3
Penn State	7-6 (Bowl)	9-3
The Fighting Middle
Iowa	9-4 (Bowl)	9-3
Michigan	9-4 (Bowl)
Illinois	9-4 (Bowl)	8-4
UCLA	3-9	8-4
Wisconsin	4-8	7-5
Nebraska	7-6 (Bowl)	6-6
Minnesota	8-5 (Bowl)	6-6
The Bottom
Northwestern	7-6 (Bowl)	4-8
Rutgers	5-7	4-8
Maryland	4-8	3-9
Michigan State	4-8	3-9
Purdue	2-10	3-9