CFP Playoffs – Who will make the final two?
Playoff games are like buses; you wait and wait and then they all come at once! Ok, not quite. But with the memories of the quarter finals still fresh in the mind we roll straight into the semis a week later. As an aside, this is largely a function of the playoffs still being connected to the old bowl structure. Here is my preview of what should be two compelling playoff games, as we look ahead to who will make the final two.
Fiesta Bowl – Miami (10) v Ole Miss (6)
Friday 9th January – 12.30am UK time
It think it is fair to say that not many expected these two teams to be in this match, but they have continued to prove everyone wrong.
Miami have dealt with criticism since being awarded the number 10 playoff ranking, but they have answered by winning at Texas A&M and then against Ohio State. Their progress has been built on a solid defense. They have accumulated 46 sacks this season (no.1 in the country).
Ole Miss have also had a wild story, losing Head Coach Lane Kiffin before the playoffs even started. They overpowered Tulane in the 1st round and hung on in there with Georgia in an entertaining game.
Of all the 4 teams left, these two are the least favoured to win the National Title and the statistics show why. Miami are ranked 7th in overall F+ and Ole Miss are 9th. Interestingly Miami have the statistical strength in defense and Ole Miss on offense. I have collated the key stats below:
Bcftoys.com have Miami winning by a 4.8 point margin.
I personally can see this being another Miami v Texas A&M game, where the Miami defense dominates. Ole Miss have been playing with some tempo in their games. They are second in the nation on first downs accumulated with 360 (behind North Texas). But I can see Miami taking the wind out of their offensive sails with their strong defense. They have only allowed 285 yards per game (10th in the country). Ole Miss by comparison have allowed 340 yards per game (41st).
Adding to the mix that it appears some of the Ole Miss coaches, who are transitioning away to LSU, have been tied up with LSU portal/recruiting work. You do wonder how prepared as a team they will actually be for the task in front of them. These coaches have had permission to stay at Ole Miss throughout the playoffs, but this is the first game since the transfer portal opened where their time will really be split.
I think this will be a factor and see Miami winning a defense dominated game.
Peach Bowl – Oregon (5) v Indiana (1)
Saturday 10th January – 12.30 am UK time
This is a rematch of the Big Ten regular season game from 11 October. Indiana went into Oregon’s Autzen stadium and won that match 30-20. The score hides the fact it was quite an even game, with Indiana only pulling away on the final few possessions. Indiana were, as they have been all season, highly effective in the plays that they execute. They lead the country in 3rd down conversions (56%). They convert red zone possessions into touchdowns 72% of the time. Oregon by comparison are doing this 64% of the time. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza is playing at such a high level and thoroughly deserved his Heisman Trophy.
It is fair to say that both teams have improved since that first meeting. They lead the nation in overall F+ ratings at numbers 1 (Indiana) and 2 (Oregon) respectively. Indeed the statistics breakdown for this game shows how close they are matched on paper. Indiana do have the statistical edge however and Bcftoys.com projects Indiana to win a very close game with only a 1.8 point margin. They predict total points of only 49.
Personally, I think that Oregon made some basic mistakes in the first game and if these had not happened, they would have had every chance to win. They will be determined to right those wrongs and will prepare accordingly. Indiana is so effective at what they do however, and it will take an immense effort by the Ducks defense to disrupt their game.
Whilst I do carry some Oregon bias as a fan…I do think the Ducks will make the necessary adjustments and win a very tight game.
All eyes on College Football
It is slightly unfortunate for us UK fans that the Fiesta bowl is played on a work night! It does however mean that the games will be free of clashing with any NFL playoff games, which start on Saturday.
23.9 million people watched the Rose Bowl where Indiana beat Alabama and the Cotton, Sugar and Orange bowl all received good viewership.
It is likely that the Fiesta and Peach bowl will receive similar viewerships which is great for the sport. For us in the UK, we remain spoiled by DAZN and can watch both matches for free.
