College Football UK Views – CFB Week 5: My Takeaways
What a week 5 that was. One thing I am certain over each week of this season is that I am uncertain about everything! We are seeing so many surprise results which is good for the sport. Here are some games that caught my eye in an action-packed CFB week 5:
As a Ducks fan I was worried about this game in the offseason, but the Ducks found a way to win 30-24 at Penn St in double overtime, against the backdrop of a frenzied White Out atmosphere. It was a key test for both teams, perhaps more so for the Nittany Lions who had a weaker slate of games coming into the contest. The season is not over for them but future games against Ohio St and Indiana will take on even more significance. For the Ducks, they have overcome a big test on the road to add to a growing portfolio of wins that Coach Lanning’s young team are building.
There were plenty of upsets this week with Virginia scoring a win against the FSU Seminoles 46-38. It perhaps isn’t a massive shock as Virginia are 4-1 but it seemed the Noles were building some good momentum, especially with their win against Alabama in week 1. FSU put up more yards on the ground (256 vs 211) and in the air (258 v 229) but couldn’t get the job done in OT. Whisper it quietly but Virginia are 2-0 in the ACC now and building some good momentum of their own. Next up is Louisville for them. This game will not define FSU’s season but the next one against Miami might.
Embed from Getty ImagesSpeaking of upsets Alabama went into Athens and beat Georgia 24-21 in a close game. Georgia had been on a 33-game home winning streak prior to the loss. Alabama got ahead early and held off the Georgia comeback. Georgia will rue not being able to put more pressure on Bama QB Ty Simpson who finished with 24 passes from 38 attempts for 276 yards and 2 TDs/0 INT (QBR 90). Georgia’s best moments came from the run game which posted 227 yards, 119 of which from Chauncey Bowens. Gunner Stockton finished with 130 yards and 1 TD off of 13 passes/20 attempts (QBR 78.6). Tricky matchups await both teams in the SEC down the road and both are now 3-1 overall.
Embed from Getty ImagesFinally, Illinois needed a last gasp field goal to beat USC 34-32. An entertaining game tipped in Illinois favour with the 41 yard kick as time expired. Illinois started well with QB Luke Altmyer having a great game throwing for 328 yards and 2 TD/0 INT and making 20 of 26 attempts (QBR 97). Jayden Maiava was just as effective with the ball in his hands connecting on 30 of 43 attempts for 364 yards with 2 TD/1INT (QBR 85.5). Illinois needed to make a statement after being thumped by Indiana the week prior and this will be a big statement too given USC’s ranking and national appeal. For USC the loss is a blow as they need to be winning games like these in the “second tier” of the Big Ten. They have the chance to right things with big games coming up against Michigan and Notre Dame.
My Takeaways following CFB Week 5
College Football is doing just fine.
There was talk in the offseason of NIL, transfer portals and revenue sharing all signalling the beginning of the end for college football. The number of upsets this seasons suggests to me that talent is being more evenly distributed and we have a bigger pool of teams that can be competitive. In the Power 4, I make it only 16 teams left with a 100% record and I can see that dropping quicky now that conference play is underway. All in all college football remains entertaining, new contenders have emerged and old ones are still in the picture (but with a little less confidence perhaps). The sport is doing just fine.
The Big Ten is in great shape
Ok, I am biased a Ducks fan, but watching the Ducks/Nittany Lions game, my over-riding emotion was how amazing it is to be able to watch the quality on offer in the Big Ten. That is not a slight on the other conferences, to my point above I think the sport is as healthy as ever. But with my gaze perhaps closer to the Big Ten I look forward to every round of matchups delivering decent quality, with at least one surprise thrown in each week. Admittedly the bottom third have some catching up to do, especially UCLA, but all in all the conference appears in good health. The conference has 6 teams in the AP top 25 compared to 10 SEC teams but hold the top 2 spots with Ohio State and Oregon
Strength of Schedule Debates Ahoy!
The volatility in results has led to strong movements in the Top 25 polls each week. This follows teams not doing what we all expected them to do (and vice versa). We have scenarios like FSU upsetting Alabama to then lose to Virginia. With so many teams taking losses, the playoff committee and pollsters will need to look closer at the fabled strength of schedule to assess wins and losses. This will cause problems. For example, last week Alabama would look at their week 1 loss to FSU as a loss to a quality team. But following FSU’s loss to Virginia and if they have more slip ups, that loss could look worse for Alabama. You have got to love College Football maths!
I have built a model which looks only at quantitative factors/stats to rank teams which I am leaving to collate some data. This does use the ESPN SoS as a factor and I look forward to talking about this soon.
I will be on the College Football UK podcast again this Wednesday and am looking forward to catching up with the guys. They normally release the pod on Thursday morning so be sure to watch out for it!
