What Happened to the PAC-12?
When I described the FBS conferences in an earlier post, for the sake of simplicity I said that the PAC-12 was part of the Power 5. However, this is not really the case anymore given the upheaval it has been through over the past 18 months. In this post I will try and give a break down of what has happened to the PAC-12 and where it might be heading.
A Fairytale on the Pacific Coast
If the PAC-12 were a fairytale character, it would have quite the compelling storyline. The character would be one of the most important in the land. It would have 12 children and then one day, nearly all of them would leave! The 2 children that stayed would remain loyal. They would eagerly wait whilst the character goes out and seeks more children to adopt into the group. Eventually, 5 more are found to join the happy family…hurrah! But they must find one more before midnight or they will be banished from the kingdom….
“Once upon a time, in a conference far far away…”
Ok, that is my ridiculous analogy for the PAC-12 conference containing more than a little poetic license. But it is not too far from the truth. Here is a more realistic overview of what happened to the PAC-12.
The History of the PAC-12
The PAC-12 has been through various iterations, but it was founded in 1915 as the Pacific Coast Conference (PCC). It was initially joined by only 4 universities, University of California (Berkeley), University of Oregon, University of Washington and the institution that is now called Oregon State University. Over time its membership grew into a 10-team conference.
The PCC was eventually disbanded and, in its place, rose the Athletic Association of Western Universities (AAWU) with 8 members. This organisation in turn became the Pacific-8 (PAC-8) and then PAC-10. In 2010, we finally arrived at PAC-12 with the addition of Colorado and Utah.
Embed from Getty ImagesPost the creation of the PAC-12 in its current form, PAC-12 Networks was set up to act as the media/production arm for the conference. It was the first to be fully-funded by the conference (not semi-owned by other networks like ESPN for example).
You’ve got the Power
The PAC-12 was a strong conference across the broad sporting landscape of college sports. On its website it refers to itself as the Conference of Champions given its history of producing national champions (outside of football).
From a football perspective, the PAC-12 also saw decent success at a national level with teams like USC Trojans collecting their fair share of National honours.
This made the PAC-12 strong enough to be considered a “power conference” and part of the Power 5 of conferences alongside the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC. These conferences all had more sway with the NCAA and received more revenue from the college football playoff format than the other “Group of 5” conferences that make up the FBS. They were considered the bigger and better conferences with more success. With more success comes greater viewing pull with audiences, better funding for the football programme, easier recruiting from high school and even more success.
The Power 5 status also allowed automatic qualifying for a team in the conference to the BCS bowls games and in more recent times, the playoff structure leading to the National Championship.
Conference Realignment
I mentioned the PAC-12 network earlier and this is important, as the TV rights generate revenue which is split amongst the teams. The better the TV rights deal, the more revenue each team should receive.
By the early 2020s the PAC-12 Network’s media rights expiry was on the horizon with the deal due to expire in 2024. Talks were well underway by 2022 to get a new deal in place. The situation was complicated by the fact that two of the conference teams (USC and UCLA) announced that they would be joining the Big Ten for the 2024 season. Not only were these both in the large California market they were also two quite successful teams. Less eyes on the conference would, of course, not help with a new TV deal.
Various deals were presented over time, including an offer from ESPN and one from Apple TV but the financial remuneration (focussed, amongst other things, on the base revenue earned per university) was deemed unsatisfactory. It was considered that the ESPN offer would not lead to a great enough cut per team. The Apple deal was complicated by add-ons linked to subscriber number growth.
Abandon Ship!
With time passing by with no resolution, teams started to consider their options. What followed was a downward spiral where another eight teams announced they would be moving elsewhere. The shift started by UCLA and USC was soon followed by Colorado and then others.
In the end Oregon, Washington, UCLA and USC went to the Big Ten. Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah went to the Big-12. Stanford and California went to the ACC.
That left Oregon State and Washington State who stayed on as a conference of two (still called the PAC-12). An agreement was reached with the Mountain-West to tie into their schedules (similar agreements were reached in other sports with other conferences). There was no conference championship in 2024 and it lost its automatic qualifying status for the playoffs. The conference has until 2026 to build its team numbers to meet NCAA requirements for the FBS.
At the expiry of its media rights PAC-12 Networks ceased operations.
Where does that leave the PAC-12?
The PAC-12 has been busy recruiting new teams and have successfully added 5 from the Mountain West conference; Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State. They will all join from the 2026 season. Small side note that Gonzaga University have also agreed to join but it does not have a football team.
That makes a football conference of 7 alongside Oregon State and Washington State and at least one more college football-playing university must be added for the conference to retain its FBS status.
So I expect the next few months to see the courting of teams continue and at least one more addition. Despite the troubles of the last few years the PAC-12 brand remains strong and it should pick up a decent media deal, which is firmly on the agenda of PAC-12 management at present.
For members of the Mountain West (or other Group of 5 teams) it is probable that the rewards would ultimately be greater in the PAC-12. The TV revenue-generating capacity is likely to be greater as part of the PAC-12 but balanced against whatever exit-fee the Mountain West would levy on them.
Of course this now leaves the Mountain West looking for teams or even considering the option of dissolving and transferring to the PAC-12 themselves. The concept of a merger between the two is not off the table and it is clear that the shuffling of the deck chairs will continue.
Will they still have the Power?
After all the changes it is unclear whether the PAC-12 would revive its status as one of the “Power” conferences. As of today it is not and you see more and more mention of only the Power 4 rather than Power 5.
The Pac-12 has a long way to go to recover from what has happened. An additional member or two to get back to 8 or 9 teams is crucial, and then a robust TV deal will be a start. Some success for its teams on the field will also help. Ahead of the 2025 season however it remains “under construction”.
