College Football Views – Week 8: Where Surprises are not Surprising
Week 8 was another wild week with more upsets, and a few more undefeated records falling. Within the FBS only 5 teams have an 0 in the loss column: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia Tech and Navy. The season has been so volatile we are now at a point where surprises are not surprising.
It was Miami’s turn to slip on the banana skin this week. The Hurricanes lost to Louisville 21-24 on Friday night. Louisville won it late, taking advantage of an interception (1 of 4 on the night) by Miami QB Carson Beck. The loss to a conference rival will be particularly damaging for Miami in terms of the ACC title. Conversely the win propels Louisville into the AP Poll Top 25.
The Vanderbilt resurgence continues as they stunned LSU 31-24. The Commodores are enjoying good momentum under Senior QB Diego Pavia and now have a 6-1 record. LSU fall to 5-2 and continue to stumble along with only 179 points scored this season, an average of 25 a game (SEC average is 31). LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier has been dealing with some minor injuries this season, which have probably hampered him a little. LSU will need him firing on all cylinders for the rest of the season.
Memphis also lost their undefeated record this weekend losing to UAB 24-31. UAB delivered their interim Head Coach his first win in the role as they improved to 3-4. For Memphis the loss to a Conference rival will be painful but they remain well placed at 6-1 in the American Conference.
Everyone vs Everyone
I have said this before, but we really are seeing the results this year of the transfer portal and NIL flattening out the talent pool across the country. There is less of a differential between top and middle tier teams on any given day. The fact that only 5 teams out of 136 have an undefeated record going into week 8 is testament to this.
The Ohio State Defensive Machine
It is not a complete flattening however and some teams remain ahead of the pack in their respective conferences. Ohio State are looking more and more dominant as the weeks go on. Not only do they have a 100% record they are conceding under 6 points a game and scoring around 36 points a game, a 30 point average margin of victory.
Will Indiana go Undefeated?
Indiana continue to pass every test put in front of them and must be classed as the years most underrated team. They have won all 7 games this year averaging 43 points per game whilst conceding on average 11 points. That’s an average margin of victory of 32 points per game.
Here Come the Aggies
Texas A&M have quietly gone about building a 7-0 record overall and 4-0 on the SEC. However, this includes only 1 win against a team that was ranked at the time (Notre Dame). Their upcoming run in will show who they really are with games against LSU, Missouri and Texas still to come.
Where is the Next Surprise?
There are three other teams who currently have a 100% record – BYU, Georgia Tech and Navy. As per ESPN SOS metrics, all three have Strength of Schedule rankings outside of the top 50 suggesting their records are a little less impressive. That being said you can only beat what is in front of you and many teams have not managed to do that this year.
In week 9 BYU face a 5-2 Iowa State which could spell trouble. Indiana are at home to an improving UCLA and Georgia Tech at home to a 3-4 Syracuse. Texas A&M go to LSU which could be challenging.
The inherent problem with looking for upsets is they are difficult to predict! Therefore I watch with interest to see what week 9 serves up. I know regardless it will be entertaining given how the season is going!
