2026 NFL Draft: Did the Regular Trends of Drafting Hold True?

Like many, I watched the NFL draft this weekend full of anticipation. Of course, I was looking forward to seeing where the various Oregon Ducks went, especially in the first round. But I was also keen to see if the regular trends of drafting would hold true.  

It was commented in the build-up that this draft class was “not as good as next years will be”. The argument being that the key trophy positions would not be as represented early on, as in other drafts.

I wanted to test this theory, so I looked at the data (wiki stats for players drafted per position) for the last 20 drafts since 2007. I wanted to see what were the trends popping out of the data and did the 2026 draft breach them?

1^st Round Unwritten Rules

Teams have positional needs each year that they need to fill and the 1^st round is a great opportunity to fill them with the best available players.

But there is a general pattern to selections in the 1st round. Quarterbacks tend to go first or early alongside Offensive Tackles. Running Backs, Safeties and Tight Ends tend to get the night off! Wide Receivers tend to be in high demand on day 1.

The average number of picks per position in the 1^st round since 2007 can be broken down as follows:

As an aside, it was interesting that the 20-year average broke down exactly to 16 players on offense and defense (after rounding). Mere coincidence perhaps

The averages are not a complete surprise. Certain positions are expensive to replace in free agency and disproportionately influential on game outcomes. Quarterbacks sit atop of that pyramid. Over the last twenty years, an average of three quarterbacks have gone in the first round each year, concentrated heavily in the top ten. In 15 of those 20 drafts, a quarterback was picked first. The exceptions were 3 defensive ends/Edges and 2 tackles.

Offensive tackle closely follows, averaging 5 first-round picks per year (28% of the 1^st round). Left tackles, the players who protect the quarterback’s blind side, command premium position given the importance of keeping your quarterback upright. Edge rushers then follow averaging 4 per first round which makes sense given the impact they can have on a game.

Similarly, cornerbacks average 4 in the first round, signifying their importance. Further down the table, you find running backs and safeties averaging 2 first-round picks per year. Tight ends average fewer than one.

It is not the case that positions with less players drafted in the 1^st round are less important on a field. But teams can normally find what they need in the following rounds at these positions. The players at safety, running back or tight end that do go in the 1^st are normally stand-outs at their position.

How Did the 2026 Play Out?

This year 9 offensive linemen went in the first round, 7 tackles and 2 interior lineman. The historical average is 6.45 combined. Nine matches a figure reached only three times in the past twenty years, in 2024, 2022 and 2013.

This is not a great surprise as several teams needed to shore up the protection of their prized QBs with some urgency. It also reflected a QB class so thin after Fernando Mendoza that teams abandoned their next quarterback hunt entirely with an eye on a stacked 2027 QB class. Only 2 QBs went in the first round with the historical average being 3. That sounds like a modest shortfall until you consider that six quarterbacks were picked in the first twelve picks two years ago.

What Happened at Quarterback?

It appears within the QB averages there is a “feast and famine” pattern as can be seen below:

There are definite cycles at quarterback and 2026 is in the trough. Normally 26% of quarterbacks drafted go in the 1^st round but that dropped to 20% this year.

The cornerback number is also interesting to me. Only two cornerbacks went in the first round in 2026 with the 20-year average being 3.7. It is only the 5^th time in this period that less than 3 have been taken in the first round (the low point being 2019 when 1 was taken. This is a position that routinely produces four, five, or six first-round picks in a single draft. In 2020, six corners went in the first round. That seems to reflect a class where the position simply did not have blue-chip talent at the top, and teams focussed on other areas.

This plays out looking at the whole draft data. Only 27 CBs were drafted against a historical average of 32. 7% of Corners drafted went in the first round compared to a historical average of 11%

The Running Back Story

A big question heading into Pittsburgh was would we see the generational talent of Jeremiyah Love go at number three to the Arizona Cardinals? If so, he would have been the first running back in the top three for some time and this of course came true.

But interestingly across all 7 rounds, just 14 running backs were selected in the 2026 NFL Draft. The 20-year average is 22.25 per draft. The previous low in that entire period was 15, set in 2010. At 14, 2026 is the lowest running back draft in at least two decades and potentially even longer.

Jeremiyah Love is exceptional and the Cardinals were right to take such a player. But the market seemed to think that this was not the year for Running Backs in general.

Tight Ends Everywhere

While running backs almost vanished from draft boards, tight ends went in the opposite direction. Whilst Kenyon Sadiq was the sole TE drafted in the 1^st round (matching the average) 21 tight ends were selected across the full 2026 draft against a twenty-year average of 14.9. This is the most of any draft in the last 20 years.

The tight end position has been gradually evolving and it will be interesting to see if 2026 is an anomaly or the start of a new trend in the market.

What this Means for the Future

In summary, the 2026 draft was defined by a weak quarterback class, an extraordinarily strong offensive line class, a lack of faith at the top-end in this cornerback cohort, a historically low running back volume despite a top-three pick at the position, and a hot tight end market.

This reflects NFL front offices responding to what was actually available, rather than what the traditional hierarchy would suggest.

The debate worth having is whether the positional decisions teams made in Pittsburgh represent a one-year anomaly driven by class quality, or an early signal of a genuine philosophical shift in how NFL teams value positions.

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Analysts have argued for years that positional value hierarchies should be fluid rather than fixed. The best player on the board should go before the best player at a premium position if the talent gap is large enough. This year’s draft seemed to test that philosophy.

As always, it will be interesting to see how these players actually perform on the field this year and what that means for the 2027 class.

The 2027 class is already attracting significant pre-draft attention at quarterback. If the position bounces back strongly next April, expect the traditional hierarchy to reassert itself quickly. It is also interesting not just what positions the players played but which conferences they came from. I plan to look at this next.